Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 112033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Leslie continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, struggling to 
produce convection. The center of the system continues to be exposed 
at it is accelerating to the northeast within an unfavorable 
environment. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have come 
down some between 30-45 kt with the final CI value from TAFB, 
T3.0/45 kt. This is in good agreement with the satellite derived 
winds from the scatterometer pass earlier today. Thus, will keep the 
intensity steady at 45 kt with this advisory.

The storm will remain in a hostile environment with strong vertical 
wind shear and dry air inhibiting convection over the system for the 
next day or so. In about 18-24 h the shear is forecast to decrease 
for a short-period of time, and model simulated satellite suggest 
that Leslie will be able to regain some convection near the center 
again, which will prolong the post-tropical transition. However, by 
36 hours the shear will increase and Leslie will be crossing into 
cooler sea surface temperatures. This will all be occuring as a 
frontal boundary approaches Leslie,and the system will begin to 
acquire some extratropical characteristics, eventually becoming post 
tropical at that time. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the 
system to remain steady with some gradual weakening as the system 
becomes post-tropical in 36 h.

Leslie has been accelerating towards the northeast, or 035/15 kt, 
between the flow of an approaching trough to the west and the 
subtropical ridge to the east. Leslie will continue to move 
northeastward then east-northeastward with an increase in forward 
speed through the weekend. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly 
poleward in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of forward 
motion, and lies near the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 27.6N  49.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 30.0N  47.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 33.5N  42.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 36.0N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  13/1800Z 37.2N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  14/0600Z 36.7N  25.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/1800Z 36.0N  21.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly