Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion

115 
WTPZ43 KNHC 020842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Satellite images indicate the center of the small tropical cyclone 
is likely embedded underneath a cold dense overcast. The deep 
convection has been quite persistent tonight, and as a result the 
objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to around 40 
kt, while the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB 
range from 30-35 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the system is 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane, with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

Lane is moving westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should 
continue over the next few days as the storm moves along the 
southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. There was a 
slight southward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle, and the 
updated NHC track prediction was nudged in that direction. Warm 
sea-surface temperatures and low shear conditions could allow Lane 
to strengthen a little more today. However, southwesterly shear is 
expected to increase over the storm on Sunday, which should then 
induce weakening of the small tropical cyclone through early next 
week. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low 
in 48 h due to the negative effects of shear and drier environmental 
air, and it could dissipate even sooner than forecast if the GFS 
solution is correct.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart