Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Kristy's organization on satellite imagery continues to rapidly
decay, with the last fragments of deep convection becoming sheared
off around the time of the last advisory. Given the current lack of
deep convection, the clock is ticking on Kristy's remaining time as
a tropical cyclone. Despite this structure, a partial ASCAT-B pass
at 0526 UTC revealed that Kristy still had a robust wind field on
its western semicircle, with peak winds of 48 kt about 40 n mi
northwest of the center. This scatterometer data was the basis for
holding Kristy as a 50 kt storm at 06 UTC. Assuming continued spin
down of the wind field absent of convection, the initial intensity
for the 09 UTC advisory is a little weaker at 45 kt. Strong vertical
wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 24 C should deal a
fatal blow to Kristy, and the updated NHC forecast shows Kristy
becoming a post-tropical cyclone later today, and opening up into a
trough on Monday.

The tropical storm's motion has slowed considerably this morning as
it becomes a shallow low-level circulation, with the estimated
motion to the northwest at 320/6 kt. A prominent low-level ridge to
the north should result in Kristy turning westward or even south of
due west before it dissipates on Monday. The NHC track is largely
an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 22.0N 129.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 22.2N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  28/0600Z 21.9N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin