Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270234
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Kristy's low-level cloud field is starting to lose some definition, 
but there has still been bursting of deep convection to the north of 
the center.  Dvorak CI numbers of 3.5 from TAFB and 3.0 from SAB, 
combined with objective satellite estimates, support a current 
intensity of 50 kt.  Due to the expected continuation of very strong 
southerly shear, as well as sea surface temperatures of 23-24 
degrees Celsius, Kristy is forecast to weaken below tropical storm 
strength and become a remnant low during the day on Sunday.  Model 
fields show the circulation opening up into a trough by 36 hours, 
and that is when dissipation is now shown.

Kristy has turned north-northwestward and slowed down further 
(330/10 kt).  However, now that the circulation is becoming 
increasingly shallow, low-level ridging to the north will cause the 
cyclone to turn back toward the northwest and west tonight and on 
Sunday before it dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 21.5N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.2N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 22.3N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg