Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT22 KNHC 301453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  34.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  34.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  34.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.6N  36.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.0N  38.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N  40.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N  41.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N  43.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N  44.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N  46.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N  48.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  34.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE