000 WTPA44 PHFO 091435 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025 Kiko has continued to weaken this morning in a high shear environment, with deep convection being displaced well north of the exposed low-level center. The latest trends in both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, ranging from 25 to 45 kt. Given the trends with these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 290/13 kt. The system has decoupled and the shallow vortex is being steered along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. This west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated throughout the forecast period. The official forecast track is similar to the previous, with maybe a slight nudge to the left in the short term, and lies near the HCCA corrected-consensus and Google DeepMind aids. Southwesterly shear continues to takes its toll on Kiko, displacing any convection to the north. The shear is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours. Shear decreases slightly between 48-60 h, with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. Forecast simulated satellite imagery shows that occasional bursts of convection are possible and Kiko may be able to sustain its tropical cyclone status. Beyond 60 h, shear increases once again and the system should continue to weaken and dissipate. The latest NHC forecast shows the system continuing to weaken and given the increased shear again at 60 h, the system is now expected to become a post-tropical cyclone. Global models depict the system slowly spinning down and the official forecast follows those trends, showing the cyclone dissipating by the end of the forecast period. It is noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon as models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than officially forecast. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecasts. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.4N 153.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.1N 155.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.7N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.4N 160.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 25.4N 162.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 26.2N 164.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 26.7N 166.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.2N 168.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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