046 WTPA44 PHFO 090856 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 08 2025 Kiko has rapidly weakened this evening, with the system now consisting primarily of a swirl of low-level clouds and little to no remaining deep convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone measured a central pressure of 1004 mb and a maximum flight-level wind of 62 kt at 850 mb. Shortly thereafter, a timely ASCAT-C pass at 0704 UTC depicted surface winds near 40 kt in the northern semicircle. These data, together with the latest objective and subjective intensity estimates and the continued degradation of the satellite presentation, support an initial intensity of 50 kt, making Kiko a tropical storm. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. With the cyclone now shallow and asymmetric, Kiko is being steered primarily by the low-level subtropical ridge. The forecast track has been nudged slightly southward to better align with the multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). This keeps Kiko on a west-northwestward trajectory, passing north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak and asymmetric tropical storm. Intermittent bursts of convection, as reflected by model-simulated satellite guidance, could result in brief poleward fluctuations of the track. Persistent southwesterly shear of 30–40 kt has removed nearly all organized convection from Kiko, and this hostile environment is expected to continue through at least the next 24 hours. While the shear may briefly decrease between 48 and 60 hours and sea surface temperatures will be slightly warmer, only sporadic bursts of convection are anticipated. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional weakening expected, and the threat of direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though interests should still monitor Kiko’s progress and the latest forecasts. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak early Tuesday through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.9N 152.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.7N 154.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.5N 156.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 24.2N 159.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 25.0N 161.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 25.8N 163.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 26.4N 165.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 27.6N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 169.7W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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