515 WTPZ41 KNHC 020249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has changed little since the previous advisory package. The cyclone appears to be in the process of establishing a more well-defined inner-core structure, with glimpses of an eye evident at times in visible satellite images. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 kt, respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 45 and 57 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 kt. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge. It should be noted that there remains considerable along-track spread among the global models — nearly 500 n mi by 120 hours — with the CMC the farthest east, the UKMET the farthest west, and the GFS/ECMWF solutions falling in between. The official track forecast remains closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through day 5. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a limiting factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between 50 and 60 percent and trending gradually lower through day 5. Additionally, the slow-moving nature of Kiko and proximity to cooler waters to the north of the system may also inhibit significant intensification. The latest intensity guidance has trended lower, and the official forecast reflects this change and has been nudged down accordingly. The official intensity forecast remains higher than most of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with a blend of the HCCA/FSSE intensity consensus aids and the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.8N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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