000
FOPZ12 KNHC 050851
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23)
IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 8(48)
PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 43(52) 3(55)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 2(28) X(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 2(24) X(24)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
L CARDENAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 3 8(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
20N 110W 34 1 8( 9) 38(47) 28(75) 2(77) 1(78) X(78)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 9(10) 58(68) 26(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 25(25) 46(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 19(29) 1(30) X(30)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 35(61) X(61)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN