000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091746 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast of San Diego. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday... Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven