ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING IN MEXICO AND ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 116.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * Santa Rosalia northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Bahia Kino in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 116.2 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin today and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center, mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward today. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are expected across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona beginning today. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN