189 WTPZ32 KNHC 090555 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS KAY PARALLELS THE WESTERN COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 115.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto San Andresito northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * North of Loreto northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass near or west of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is is 987 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are expected across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 3 to 5 inches with isolated maxima of 8 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin