000 WTPZ32 KNHC 092341 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 118.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Quintin northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 118.4 West. Kay is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west is expected on Saturday, and this motion should continue to take Kay away from the northern Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. There are continued report of 50-70 mph (80-110 km/h) wind gusts in the mountains east and northeast of San Diego, with occasional gusts to hurricane force. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Winds are expected to drop below tropical storm force in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the northwestern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of hours. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Baja California: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect the Baja California peninsula coast, the Gulf of California, and southern California during the next day or so. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi