Pacific Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Kay Forecast Discussion

WTPZ42 KNHC 092052

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and 
recent scatterometer data indicate that Kay continues to weaken, 
with maximum winds of about 35 kt that are confined to an area over 
the Pacific east and northeast of the center.  Satellite imagery 
shows no organized central convection, with the remaining 
thunderstorms well to the north of the center over southern 
California.  The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on the 
aircraft and scatterometer data.  However, stronger winds enhanced 
by the mountainous terrain are occuring over portions of southern 

Unless the central convection re-develops, which appears unlikely 
over sea surface temperatures of 21-22C, Kay should decay to a 
remnant low tonight with the maximum winds decreasing below 35 kt.  
The global models are in good agreement that the remnant low will 
dissipate between 72-96 h, and the official forecast follows this.

While Kay is currently moving northwest or 305/10 kt, it is 
starting its expected turn away from land and should move westward 
at a slower forward speed during the next 12-24 h.  After that, a 
low-level ridge to the west of the remnant low should steer the 
system slowly southward and southeastward until it dissipates.  
There was again little change in the track forecast guidance since 
the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track.

Although Kay's intensity has decreased, wind, surf, and rainfall 
impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not 
focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.


1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will 
likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides, 
across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland 
northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning.  Flash, urban, and 
small stream flooding is likely across Southern California, 
especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and also possible in 
the Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and southern Nevada.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the 
Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.


INIT  09/2100Z 31.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 31.4N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/1800Z 31.5N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0600Z 31.4N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 30.9N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 30.1N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 29.2N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven

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