Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Forecast Advisory


242 
WTPZ22 KNHC 090848
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SOUTH OF BAHIA KINO ON THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* SANTA ROSALIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO IN MAINLAND
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 116.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 116.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.3N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.9N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.6N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 116.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN





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