000 WTPZ22 KNHC 051438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO ON THE EAST COAST AND PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 100SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.3N 109.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 111.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.0N 113.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI