000 WTPZ22 KNHC 050850 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 100SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.4N 112.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 113.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.5N 115.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN