308 WTPZ22 KNHC 050249 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.8W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.8W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 111.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.3N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART