984 WTPZ45 KNHC 270835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Juliette still has a relatively healthy presentation this morning on satellite imagery, with a small, but symmetric area of deep convection near its center. However, these cold cloud tops are warming as the cyclone begins to move over the progressively cooler ocean waters of the eastern North Pacific. Satellite intensity estimates are decreasing, and we also received a helpful Metop-C ASCAT pass at 0451 UTC which only had a peak wind retrieval of 36 kt in the eastern side of the tropical storm. The initial intensity is only being lowered to 45 kt this advisory, assuming some scatterometer undersampling of the small circulation. The tropical storm is now moving north-northwestward, estimated at 330/11 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so with a little more rightward turn as Juliette is steered poleward through a weakness in the mid-level ridging produced by a deep-layer trough located off the California coast. As the cyclone becomes vertically shallow, its forward motion should slow substantially as it becomes more steered by the light and variable low-level flow in this part of the eastern North Pacific. The official track forecast this cycle is fairly similar to the prior one, other than a little more eastward shift after Juliette becomes a remnant low. This forecast remains generally in the middle of the guidance envelope. Juliette's tropical cyclone story is fading as it moves over sea-surface temperatures below 25C which cool further over the next 24 hours. While vertical wind shear is currently low, it is expected to increase substantially after 24 hours, stripping away the storm's remaining convection by that time. Thus, Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in about 36 h. The remnant low should ultimately open up into a trough by the end of the week. Even as Juliette becomes a remnant low, some of its mid- to upper-level moisture will be advected poleward towards portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., which could help to enhance local monsoonal rainfall for these areas in the latter half of this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 23.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 25.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 26.3N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z 27.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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