000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Juliette has changed little in organization since earlier today, but the overall coverage and intensity of deep convection has decreased. Most of the strongest thunderstorm activity is occurring in a small cluster just to the southeast of the estimated center. Convective banding features are not particularly well-defined. The advisory intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications of 3.5/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB and an objective DPRINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS. The storm continues on its northwestward trek with a motion estimate of about 325/10 kt. Juliette is moving on the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico. This steering regime should continue through tomorrow. In 48 hours, the cyclone should weaken and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is somewhat to the right of the previous one, but not as far to the right as the latest dynamical model consensus. Juliette is currently crossing a strong gradient of SSTs and is headed for much cooler waters. This, along with drier low- to mid-level air and increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is very close to the DSHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA numerical guidance. Given the expected future environment, the tropical cyclone could weaken even faster then indicated here. Mid- to upper-level moisture associated with Juliette or its remnants will probably spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 20.9N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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