000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Juliette's satellite appearance has remained fairly steady overnight with curved banding mainly to the south of the center. Recent microwave imagery shows that Juliette is still trying to develop a small inner core, which has not become better established since the previous advisory. Unfortunately, scatterometer missed tonight given the small size of the system it fell within the data gap. There is a bit of a range from subjective and objective intensity estimates this cycle between 44 to 65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt. The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 290/ 11 kt. The storm is being steered along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge located to the north. A gradual turn to the northwest then north-northwest is anticipated as a weakness in the ridge develops over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the right in the short term between the consensus aids on the right with Google DeepMind and EMXI on the left. Juliette should remain within a favorable environment, with warm sea surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear for the next 18-24 h , which will allow for some strengthening. However, by early Wednesday the system will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures, and into a drier airmass. Latest SHIPS model guidance depicts wind shear also increases in about 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the consensus aids, and shows some strengthening possible today, although since the inner core has not established, the peak intensity is now just below hurricane strength. A gradual weakening trend is then forecast between 24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of weakening beyond 36 h. Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 h, before opening into a trough and dissipating by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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