000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed that Juliette is now producing maximum winds around 50 kt within the southeastern quadrant. The center is well embedded beneath a persistent burst of deep convection, but interestingly, the cyclone has also been producing another semi-disconnected burst of convection to the southwest of the center. Juliette has another 24-36 hours before it reaches cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere. Continued strengthening is expected in the short term, and Juliette does have the potential to become a hurricane. In fact, the latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are showing a 40-45 percent change of a 25-kt increase over the next day. The NHC forecast therefore explicitly shows Juliette becoming a hurricane in 24 hours. Weakening is anticipated to begin in 36 hours, and Juliette could become post-tropical in about 3 days when it loses its deep convection. Dissipation into a trough is likely by day 5. The initial motion is west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt. Due to a break in the subtropical ridge which has developed near and to the west of the Baja California peninsula, Juliette is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, and then the north-northwest by late Wednesday. The NHC largely follows a blend of the previous forecast and the Google Deep Mind model, but overall there isn't much spread in the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.6N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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