003 WTPZ45 KNHC 251438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 Deep convection, with a fair amount of lightning, continues to burst over Juliette's center. There still appears to be some shear affecting the cyclone, although various diagnostics from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS suggest it has decreased to about 10 kt. Objective satellite intensity estimates are gradually increasing, and the maximum winds are estimated to now be 40 kt. With the shear now lower, steady intensification is anticipated during the next 36 hours or so while Juliette remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance during this period. Weakening is forecast after 36 hours due to cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere. The NHC forecast calls for Juliette to become post-tropical by Friday, although it could happen as early as Thursday. Juliette continues west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 11 kt. Due to a break in the subtropical ridge which has developed near and to the west of the Baja California peninsula, Juliette is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, and then the north-northwest and north by Thursday and Friday. There is a typical amount of spread among the track guidance, and the NHC forecast takes a blend of the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, Google Deep Mind, and TVCE consensus aids. This updated forecast is not too different from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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