000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Juliette’s low-level circulation is now fully exposed southwest of a diminishing area of convection, which has been fading quickly under persistent southwesterly shear and a dry mid- to upper-level environment. A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C pass indicated peak winds near 40 kt, consistent with the latest objective and subjective intensity estimates, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is anticipated as Juliette remains embedded in increasing shear, cool waters, and a stable, dry environment. The system is expected to transition into a remnant low late Thursday and dissipate within a couple of days. Juliette is moving north-northwestward, or 330/8 kt, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The forecast track has been nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory and lies close to the consensus aids. As Juliette degenerates into a shallow system, most of the global models indicate the remnant low will gradually bend leftward while becoming steered primarily by the low-level flow by the weekend. Global models also suggest that residual mid- to upper-level moisture associated with Juliette will lift northeastward over portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States, potentially increasing rainfall chances. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 24.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 25.9N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.9N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 27.3N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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