000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 GOES-18 imagery indicates that convection associated with Juliette continues to gradually decrease, and the cloud tops on IR imagery are gradually warming. However, there is an area of convection about 70 n mi wide in the NE quadrant, with the low-level center currently at the southwestern edge of the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have a wider range (35-50 kt). A 1719 UTC ASCAT-C pass over the cyclone showed several 34-36 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt for this advisory. Juliette is moving over cold sea surface temperatures of 23-24C, and the cyclone is forecast to reach water temperatures colder than 22C in 6-12 h. Juliette is also now reaching an area of increasing southwesterly wind shear, along with a drier, stable low- to mid-tropospheric environment. These negative factors will cause Juliette to continue weakening, and the cyclone should become a remnant low in about 24 h. Afterward, Juliette should open into a trough by late Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, with slightly faster weakening shown compared to the previous advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/12 kt. This motion should continue for the next 12-18 h while Juliette moves further into a growing weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. As Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow cyclone on Thursday, a slower forward motion toward the north is expected while being steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous track, and lies close to the various consensus aids. Global models predict that residual mid- to upper-tropospheric moisture will be advected toward portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., potentially increasing humidity conditions and enhancing local monsoonal rainfall toward the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 23.9N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 25.2N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 27.3N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 27.8N 120.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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