000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Conventional satellite imagery this morning indicates that Juliette's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate. Deep convection has diminished in areal coverage while the cloud tops have warmed, particularly over the surface center. A blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB (40-50 kt) and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis of 48 kt yield an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Juliette is traversing a sharp sea surface temperature gradient (less than 24 C) while moving into a drier, stable low- to mid-tropospheric surrounding environment. These negative contributions, along with increasing west-southwesterly deep-layer shear should weaken Juliette and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36 hrs, if not sooner. Afterward, Juliette should open into a trough by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the IVCN intensity consensus model and the LGEM. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/11 kt. This motion should continue for the next couple of days followed by a gradual northward turn on Thursday evening, while Juliette moves further into a growing weakness in the mid-level subtropical high. As Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow cyclone toward the end of the period, a slower forward motion is expected while being steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. Global models predict that residual mid- to upper-tropospheric moisture will be advected toward portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., potentially increasing humidity conditions and enhancing local monsoonal rainfall toward the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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