Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 252052
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102024               
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 105W       34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MANZANILLO     34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

L CARDENAS     34 33  15(48)   4(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
L CARDENAS     50  1   6( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
L CARDENAS     64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ZIHUATANEJO    34 56  15(71)   5(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ZIHUATANEJO    50 11  17(28)   4(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  1   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

15N 100W       34 23   4(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

ACAPULCO       34 44   8(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)

P MALDONADO    34 10   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI