Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 231447
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102024               
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 100W       34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ACAPULCO       34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

P MALDONADO    34  9  43(52)  12(64)   3(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
P MALDONADO    50  X   8( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
P MALDONADO    64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

P ANGEL        34  1  23(24)  34(58)   7(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
P ANGEL        50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HUATULCO       34  X   4( 4)  19(23)   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

15N 95W        34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN