000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040235 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Javier is nearly post-tropical, having produced little to no deep convection since late this morning. Post-tropical transition will likely conclude tonight since the cyclone is moving over cold water that should prevent the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Earlier ASCAT data showed peak winds near 40 kt, so the initial intensity was held at that value, possibly conservatively so. Without deep convection to sustain it, Javier should slowly weaken over the next several days, eventually dissipating by the middle of next week. The new official intensity forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is close to the intensity model consensus. The tropical storm is now moving away from the Baja California peninsula. Low-level easterly steering flow should cause Javier to turn westward by the end of the weekend. By then the cyclone is forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it should continue westward through the middle of the week until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is heavily based on the TVCN track consensus aid with no changes of note made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 26.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 27.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0000Z 28.0N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 27.9N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 27.6N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 27.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 26.7N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky