Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Javier Forecast Discussion


417 
WTPZ41 KNHC 032042
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Javier has been devoid of deep convection for the past few hours. 
Recent satellite surface wind measurements also indicate the cyclone 
has a smaller wind field than previously estimated and 
tropical-storm-force winds are only present in the northern portion 
of the circulation.  Based on the ASCAT data the initial intensity 
is held at 40 kt for this cycle.

The lack of organized, deep convection is an indication Javier is
likely to become a post-tropical cyclone soon.  The system is
moving over a cooling gradient of ocean surface temperatures and
into a region with moderate to strong vertical wind shear and lower
relative humidities.  Model guidance agrees Javier should continue
to weaken and the official forecast reflects this information.  The
system is now predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within 12
hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 14 kt.  The
mid-level ridge to the north currently steering Javier is expected
to gradually turn the storm west-northwestward and slow its forward
motion.  Low-level tradewinds are then expected to turn the
weakening shallow vortex to the west and west-southwest beyond 48
hours. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory
prediction and the model consensus aids.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any northward deviations from the official track
forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching
portions of Baja California Sur this evening, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Puerto de
Andresito and Punta Eugenia through this afternoon. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 26.0N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 27.0N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  04/1800Z 27.6N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 27.8N 125.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0600Z 27.4N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 27.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 26.7N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart




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