417 WTPZ41 KNHC 032042 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Javier has been devoid of deep convection for the past few hours. Recent satellite surface wind measurements also indicate the cyclone has a smaller wind field than previously estimated and tropical-storm-force winds are only present in the northern portion of the circulation. Based on the ASCAT data the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this cycle. The lack of organized, deep convection is an indication Javier is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone soon. The system is moving over a cooling gradient of ocean surface temperatures and into a region with moderate to strong vertical wind shear and lower relative humidities. Model guidance agrees Javier should continue to weaken and the official forecast reflects this information. The system is now predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within 12 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 14 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north currently steering Javier is expected to gradually turn the storm west-northwestward and slow its forward motion. Low-level tradewinds are then expected to turn the weakening shallow vortex to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory prediction and the model consensus aids. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any northward deviations from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur this evening, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Puerto de Andresito and Punta Eugenia through this afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 26.0N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 27.0N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1800Z 27.6N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 27.8N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z 27.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 26.7N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart