000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate over the past few hours. The deep convective burst noted in the previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70 degrees C. Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend. The system has crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be progressively colder. Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to not be conducive for any additional strengthening. Global models suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the environmental moisture to decrease within a day. Based on this information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a remnant within two days. The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt. Though the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Within a day or less, model guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the west-northwest. Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart