000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030852 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a recent deep convective burst with -78C cloud tops just to the west of the surface circulation center. A 0116 UTC SSMI/S microwave image showed a primary curved band wrapping around 65 percent of the cyclone's surface center. Based on a compromise of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, a 0428 UTC SATCON analysis of 49 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealing a few peak-wind retrievals of 39 kt (undersampling likely), the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. There's a small window of opportunity that Javier could strengthen slightly today before it moves over a gradient of progressively cooler waters of less than 24C this evening. This negatively contributing oceanic parameter, along with an increasingly stable surrounding environment should cause Javier to become a post-tropical cyclone Sunday, and a remnant low-pressure system by early next week. Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/13 kt. This general motion should continue through today in response to the mid-level steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. By early Sunday, the global models are in good agreement that this ridge should build westward and influence Javier to slowly turn toward the west-northwest to west while the cyclone weakens. The NHC forecast follows suit and lies close to the TVCE and NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus aids. Javier's wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory using a fortuitous 0430 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any additional eastward deviation from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 24.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 25.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 26.8N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0600Z 27.5N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 27.3N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 26.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 26.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts