Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Javier Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030244
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

AMSR microwave imagery that arrived after the issuance of the 
previous advisory indicated that Javier's center was slightly 
northeast of previous estimates. The microwave imagery also showed 
that the Tropical Storm still has a broad center, with more recent 
visible imagery suggesting that multiple swirls are rotating around 
a mean center. Despite the cyclone's broad organization, subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now 
support a higher initial intensity of 45 kt. Slight additional 
strengthening is possible overnight before Javier moves over much 
cooler waters and begins to weaken on Saturday. Simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS, HWRF, and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone 
will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in about 
36 h, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. No changes of 
note were made to the official intensity forecast.

Due to the relocation of Javier's initial position to the northeast, 
the NHC track forecast has also been adjusted in that direction. 
Otherwise, there has been no change in the thinking behind the track 
forecast. The tropical storm appears to have accelerated slightly 
and now has an initial motion estimate of 330/12 kt. A mid-level 
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Javier 
generally parallel to the coast of the Baja California peninsula for 
the next day or so. The ridge is then forecast to build westward as 
Javier weakens, which should cause the cyclone to turn westward 
through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is based on 
the latest multi-model track consensus and is near the center of the 
guidance envelope.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the 
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward deviation from the official 
track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching 
portions of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in 
effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in 
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 23.1N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 26.2N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 27.1N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  05/0000Z 27.4N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1200Z 27.5N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 27.2N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 26.6N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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