Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Javier Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022050
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

The organization of Javier has not changed significantly over the 
past few hours.  Satellite infrared imagery indicate that convection 
is deepest in the western portion of the tropical storm's elongated 
circulation with an apparent dry slot in the northwest quadrant.  
The initial intensity remains at 40 kt and is a blend of the 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for 
strengthening for the next 24 hours, with warm sea surface 
temperatures, low deep-layer vertical wind shear and sufficient 
environmental moisture.  However, Javier still has a relatively 
broad circulation, so the NHC forecast only calls for slight 
strengthening.  It should be noted that the peak of the official 
intensity forecast is now at the top of the model guidance.  Beyond 
a day, the system is predicted to weaken as it moves over 
progressively cooler waters and into a drier environment.  Javier 
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt.  The reasoning 
behind the track forecast is unchanged.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to 
the north is the primary synoptic feature steering Javier.  This 
ridge is expected to build westward and turn the cyclone to the 
northwest and west-northwest in the next couple of days.  The 
official forecast has shifted eastward again towards the model 
consensus aids.  Based on the latest forecast, the Government of 
Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja California Sur. 
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect 
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast 
during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja 
California Sur through Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 21.8N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart



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