174 WTPZ41 KNHC 020842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Since yesterday afternoon, deep convection has been developing over the western half of the cyclone. Although the surface circulation is still elongated (north to south), deep bursts of convection have recently appeared near the estimated center. The latest microwave imagery indicated curved banding with cold cloud tops of -81C forming in the southeast quadrant. A blend of the subjective satellite intensity from TAFB and SAB yields an estimate of 35 kt. Accordingly, the depression has been upgraded to a tropical storm for this advisory. The depression is expected to remain in an environment conducive for additional strengthening through Saturday, but given its broad, elongated structure, only modest intensification is forecast. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected as the cyclone traverses decreasing (22-24C) oceanic temperatures while moving into a stable, dry marine layer. The intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is based on the various intensity consensus guidance. Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9 kt, moving along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico. By the 48 hour period, the ridge as mentioned above is expected to build westward, which should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the weekend. The official track forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast based on a mean track of the clustered guidance, however, tropical-storm-force winds generated by Javier are expected to remain well offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 19.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 23.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 24.6N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 25.6N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 26.1N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0600Z 26.1N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 24.8N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts