Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Javier Forecast Advisory


001 
WTPZ21 KNHC 022048
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO
PUNTA EUGENIA AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM
CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 112.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART





Source link