001 WTPZ21 KNHC 022048 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 112.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART