184 WTPZ44 KNHC 080251 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 While Ivo has a compact core with a concentrated area of convection, the overall cloud pattern appears disorganized and lacks banding features. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates and in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. Some of the associated thunderstorms are brushing the coast of southwestern Mexico, likely bringing areas of heavy rain and gusty winds. Ivo's tropical-storm-force winds remain offshore near the tiny core, and are estimated to only extend about 40 n mi from the center. The storm continues to move quickly to the northwest at 19 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift slightly westward during the next few days. As a result, Ivo is forecast to turn to the west-northwest and then the west with a notable decrease in forward speed. This motion should take Ivo away from mainland Mexico and well south of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. The large-scale conditions appear quite favorable for strengthening during the next day or so with warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidities. However, it is possible that Ivo might not take advantage of those conditions given its current ragged structure. There is considerable divergence in the intensity models with the dynamical-statistical aids showing significant strengthening while the global and HAFS guidance show little to no intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one and leans closer to the high end of the guidance in the short term, but this is of low confidence. Regardless of what occurs in the next 24 hours, weakening should begin over the weekend when Ivo is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into an air mass of drier air and stronger shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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