472 WTPZ44 KNHC 070844 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Ivo's satellite presentation is that of a storm that is steadily intensifying. Deep convection has been continuously forming while the central deep overcast has been expanding through the evening. However, overnight scatterometer data from 0412 UTC revealed a dubious, at best, low-level circulation. The data suggests that even though the mid-level rotation appears robust, the low-level flow has yet to reflect such organization, likely due to Ivo's rapid forward motion. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest satellite-derived wind data. The motion is estimated to be 295/20 kt. Ivo is racing along the southern side of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so which should keep the tropical cyclone moving parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Around 36 h, Ivo is expected to turn more westward and slow down. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous forecast and lies between the various consensus aids. Ivo is still forecast to steadily strengthen over then next day or so. Moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist environment should provide the necessary conditions for the cyclone to reach hurricane status within the next couple of days. Ivo is expected to cross over cooler waters by 72 h, which should induce a gradual weakening trend. Global models predict increasing shear will separate the cyclone from deep convection and Ivo is now forecast to become post-tropical by 96 h. The official intensity forecast remains at the high end of the model guidance. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. Flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.9N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
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