023 WTPZ44 KNHC 090839 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Ivo is having intermittent bursts of deep convection since the last advisory. An ASCAT pass from 0412 UTC showed the center of the small circulation near the northeastern edge of the CDO. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have generally decreased in recent hours and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this cycle. The storm is moving westward at 8 kt. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is anticipated through the forecast period while Ivo is steered along the southern side of a ridge positioned to its north. The track guidance has shifted poleward this cycle, and the latest official forecast lies on the southern side of the envelope between the ECMWF to its south and the simple consensus aid TVCE to its north. Ivo is currently crossing a cooling gradient of sea surface temperatures and moving towards a dry and stable airmass. The storm is expected to gradually weaken through the weekend, until it becomes a post-tropical cyclone sometime Sunday night or Monday morning. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted lower based on the decrease in initial intensity and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.6N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Source link