130 WTPZ44 KNHC 062054 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Wed Aug 06 2025 One-minute GOES-E visible imagery, microwave imagery and scatterometer data from this morning indicate that the disturbance south of Mexico has become much better organized. The system has developed banding features, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak analysis shows a Final-T of 2.0. The ASCAT data showed peak winds between 30-35 kt, so advisories have been initiated on Tropical Storm Ivo, with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Ivo has a relatively small circulation, but it's embedded within a fairly large area of deep convection. SHIPS diagnostics indicate that wind shear could be a limiting factor for Ivo's intensity during the next couple of days, but the tropical storm is in an otherwise conducive environment for strengthening. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus and shows Ivo reaching hurricane strength within the next couple of days, but there is about 30 kt of spread in the intensity guidance, both above and below the official forecast. Ivo is moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest near 19 kt. A deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Ivo parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days. The ridge is forecast to weaken by the weekend, causing Ivo to move at a slower forward speed, but by then Ivo will reach cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. That should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken and turn westward, steered primarily by low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, very close to HCCA throughout the 5-day period. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico, however heavy rain and rough surf are likely along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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