000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The burst of deep convection that developed around the time of the release of the previous advisory appears to have resulted in some unexpected intensification of the cyclone. A 1650 UTC ASCAT-B overpass revealed a fairly sizable area of 30-35 kt winds over the western portion of the circulation. While some of those winds may have been rain inflated, there were enough vectors in that range to assume the system has 30-35 kt winds. Surface observations from Clarion island, located outside of the deep convection, measured a peak sustained wind of 23 kt and a gust to 33 kt, which matched the scatterometer data. A more recent ASCAT-C pass revealed slightly lower winds, but ADT, SATCON, and the Dvorak data T-numbers (using a shear pattern) all supported a 35-kt intensity at around 18Z. Therefore, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm on this advisory. The burst of convection that caused the intensification is already quickly being shunted westward away from the low-level center due to 20-25 kt of easterly shear. Since the system is forecast to remain over warm water during the next couple of days, additional bursts of convection are likely to develop and it is nearly impossible to forecast if they will have enough organization or persistence to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone. Given the shear, the forecast still calls for gradual weakening, but it delays the system's transition to a post-tropical cyclone a bit. The depression remains within an area of light steering currents and the initial motion estimate is 265/2 kt. The system is only forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward during the next day or so, before a more pronounced westward or west-northwestward motion is expected to begin. The updated NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the TVCE consensus model, which is slightly north of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.7N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 18.0N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 18.2N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown