470 WTPZ34 KNHC 130543 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.6 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
13
Sep