000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at 1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this advisory. Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours. This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin