Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Hone Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FOPA11 PHFO 241441
PWSCP1

TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012024         
1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

20N 151W       34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BUOY 51004     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BUOY 51004     50 36   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
BUOY 51004     64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 154W       34  8   5(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

15N 155W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

HILO           34  6  20(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

18N 156W       34  4  67(71)   8(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
18N 156W       50  X  36(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
18N 156W       64  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

SOUTH POINT    34  6  60(66)   5(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
SOUTH POINT    50  X  23(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

21N 156W       34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

KAILUA-KONA    34  3  24(27)   9(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KAHULUI        34  1   5( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

21N 158W       34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)

HANA           34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  19(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

LANAI CITY     34  1   4( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BUOY 51002     34  1   6( 7)  25(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BUOY 51002     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

HONOLULU       34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

LIHUE          34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

15N 160W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 160W       34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  35(51)   5(56)   X(56)   X(56)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
20N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)

21N 160W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BUOY 51003     34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  41(53)  14(67)   X(67)   X(67)
BUOY 51003     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   9(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BUOY 51003     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   X(16)

NECKER         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

20N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)  12(39)   X(39)
20N 165W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
20N 165W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

20N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS                                            



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