000 WTPA41 PHFO 240238 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 7 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled Tropical Storm Hone from this morning into early afternoon and provided valuable data. In spite of its lack of convection, Hone maintained a well-developed low cloud field and remained surprisingly intense through the morning, well above Dvorak inputs from the fix agencies. Late this afternoon, deep convection is redeveloping near the center as winds aloft ease. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters came in just before 00Z and showed maximum sustained winds holding at 45 kt and a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 mb. Given the appearance of Hone, these values will be used for the initial intensity. The initial motion is unchanged at 280/14. This general motion toward slightly north of due west will continue during the next several days as Hone is steered by a deep subtropical ridge to the north. However, some slowing of the forward motion is anticipated as the deep ridge to the north of Hone weakens slightly. Along this track, Hone will be passing near or just south of the state late Saturday into early Sunday, which necessitates the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the Big Island of Hawaii. By the middle of next week, Hone will likely become increasingly shallow as vertical wind shear increases, allowing the low level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west. The official forecast track is nearly identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows the tightly clustered consensus guidance near the TVCN. Hone has a window for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours. Easterly winds aloft, which have inhibited outflow in all but the south and southwest quadrants, will relax tonight and Saturday as a weakness develops in the upper level ridge north of the cyclone. Sea surface temperatures will remain around 26-27C, which will be sufficient for intensification, possibly to hurricane strength, late Saturday or early Sunday. Late Sunday and Monday, west to northwest vertical wind shear will increase sharply, which should result in steady weakening. The intensity forecast remains on the higher side of the guidance envelope near the HCCA and slightly higher than the IVCN. Beyond 48 hours, the forecast closely follows the IVCN. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding on portions of the Big Island of Hawaii starting later Saturday and continuing through Sunday as a large area of moisture associated with Hone moves over parts of the Hawaiian Islands. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur over windward and southeast facing slopes. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.9N 149.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.3N 151.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.6N 154.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.9N 156.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.2N 158.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 18.6N 160.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.0N 162.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 19.7N 165.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 20.4N 168.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe