579 WTPA41 PHFO 232048 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are flying into Hone this morning. In spite of the tropical storm's continued lack of persistent deep convection, it presents a well-developed low level cloud field on satellite imagery. A center dropsonde found a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 mb, and flight level wind reduction and SFMR in the northeast quadrant support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. Based on the aircraft data, the wind radii were adjusted for most quadrants on this advisory. Additional aircraft missions are planned for today and tonight. The initial motion is set at 280/14. This general motion toward slightly north of due west will continue during the next several days as Hone is steered by a deep subtropical ridge to the north. However, some slowing of the forward motion is anticipated as the deep ridge to the north of Hone weakens slightly. By the middle of next week, Hone will likely get increasingly shallow as vertical wind shear increases, allowing the low level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west. The official forecast track is nearly identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows the tightly clustered consensus guidance. On this track, Hone will be passing near or just south of the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday into early Sunday. Little change in intensity is expected in the next 12 to 18 hours, followed intensification Saturday and Sunday. Easterly winds aloft, which have inhibited outflow in all but the south and southwest quadrants, will relax tonight and Saturday as a weakness develops in the upper level ridge north of the cyclone. Sea surface temperatures will remain around 26-27C, which will be sufficient for intensification, possibly to hurricane strength, later in the weekend. By Monday, westerly vertical wind shear increases sharply, and some drier mid-level air appears to begin entraining into the system. This should result in steady weakening. The intensity forecast was changed little from the prior package and lies near the IVCN between the stronger dynamical guidance and the weaker statistical guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding on portions of the Big Island starting later Saturday, continuing through Sunday and lingering into Monday as a large area of moisture associated with Hone. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur over windward and southeast facing slopes. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 16.7N 147.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.1N 149.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 17.5N 152.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.8N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.2N 157.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 18.6N 159.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.0N 161.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 19.7N 164.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.2N 167.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe