000 WTPA41 PHFO 011500 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 The satellite presentation of Hone has become very ragged overnight, with the low-level circulation center becoming very difficult to locate with much confidence. An 1130z Oceansat-3 pass indicated that the low level center of Hone has shifted west-westward since the previous and appears to be merging with the mid-level low just east of the International Date Line. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, all came in at 2.5 (35 kt), while the objective intensity estimates were similar. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at a perhaps generous 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is quite uncertain due to the low-level of Hone being in the process of merging with the mid-level low to the west, and is set at 300/12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight along with a decrease in forward speed as Hone merges with a mid-level low to the west. Hone should begin moving northward with an increase in forward speed Monday and Monday night as it moves into a weakness in building mid-level ridges to the northwest and east of the system. A shift back toward the northwest is then expected late Tuesday through Thursday as a low and mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hone. The latest track forecast was adjusted to better align with the latest model guidance and generally follows the TVCE consensus. Hone will be in a relatively favorable environment during the next couple days, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The interaction with a mid-level low, ragged LLCC and entrainment of dry mid-level air should act to minimize the potential for intensification however. Beyond 48 hours mid-level moisture drops off considerably and the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest a loss of deep convection by 72 hours. As a result, the intensity forecast holds Hone as a 35 kt Tropical Storm during the next couple days, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours, and dissipation occurring by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows the latest intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.0N 177.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 25.4N 178.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.7N 179.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 27.1N 179.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 179.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 30.2N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 31.0N 179.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 178.0E 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema