000 WTPA41 PHFO 010900 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 40 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 The satellite presentation of Hone has deteriorated since the previous advisory, with the low-level circulation center looking rather ragged. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, all came in at 2.5 (35 kt), while the objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt. As a result, the intitial intensity has been held at 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is somewhat uncertain as the forward speed of Hone has fluctated considerably during the past 12 hours, and is set at 350/06 kt. Hone is in the process of merging with a mid-level low to the west this evening. This should result in a turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed tonight, followed by a shift toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed on Sunday. The motion is forecast to become rather erratic and slow Sunday night as Hone remains under a mid-level low near the International Date Line. Hone should begin moving northward with an increase in foward speed Monday and Monday night as it moves into a weakness in a building mid-level ridges to the northwest and east of the system. A shift back toward the northwest is then expected late Tuesday through Thursday as a low and mid-level ridge build to the north of Hone. The latest track forecast was adjusted to better align with the latest model guidance and generally follows the TVCE consensus. Hone will be in a relatively favorable environment during the next couple days, with warm sea surface tempreatures and low vertical wind shear. The interaction with a mid-level low, ragged LLCC and entrainment of dry mid-level air should act to minimize the potential for intensifcation however. Beyond 48 hours mid-level moisture drops off considerably and the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest a loss of deep convection by 72 hours. As a result, the intensity forecast has been lowered in the extended range, holding the system at 35 kt during the next couple days, and showing Hone becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours, with dissipation expected by 120 hours. The intensity forecast is closely follows the latest intensity consensus guidance. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atolls. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 24.2N 176.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.3N 178.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 25.5N 179.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 26.1N 179.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 27.6N 179.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 29.3N 179.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 30.3N 179.7E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 31.0N 178.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema